Weather Markets Edge Desk is an MCP server with 6 tools an agent can call, among them base_rate_gap, bayes_update, calculate_ev. It answers at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry over streamable HTTP, and it listed its tools to an anonymous client, so no sign-in was needed for that. Our probes reached it 6 of 6 times since 10 September 2026; the last check, on 19 October 2026, succeeded.
Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.
Description as the publisher wrote it.
| Tool | What it does |
|---|---|
base_rate_gap | Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, Inputs: marketPrice, baseRateId, baseRateValue |
bayes_update | Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Inputs: prior, evidence |
calculate_ev | Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP si Inputs: marketPrice, yourProbability |
convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American Inputs: value, format |
edge_alerts | Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentag Inputs: feed, min_tier, since, limit |
kelly_size | Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake a Inputs: winProbability, marketPrice, bankroll, fraction |
Every block below points at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry. Pick your client and copy.
claude mcp add --transport http weather-markets-edge-desk https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry
{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"command": "npx",
"args": ["-y", "mcp-remote", "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"]
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"servers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"context_servers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"serverUrl": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}name: Weather Markets Edge Desk
version: 0.0.1
schema: v1
mcpServers:
- name: Weather Markets Edge Desk
type: streamable-http
url: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"httpUrl": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"type": "http",
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}{
"mcpServers": {
"weather-markets-edge-desk": {
"url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
}
}
}goose://extension?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpredictionmarketspicks.com%2Fapi%2Fmcp-weather%2Fmcp%3Fvia%3Dregistry&type=streamable_http&id=weather-markets-edge-desk&name=Weather%20Markets%20Edge%20Desk
It answered our last check on 19 October 2026 in 561 ms. Over 6 checks since 10 September 2026 it answered 6. Status here comes from Neuronto's own probes, not from the publisher.
Yes. It is published by predictionmarketspicks.com and served from predictionmarketspicks.com, the vendor's own domain: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry.
6, as returned by the server's own tools/list on 11 September 2026: base_rate_gap, bayes_update, calculate_ev, convert_probability, edge_alerts, kelly_size.
It answered our last check on 19 October 2026 in 561 ms. Over 6 checks since 10 September 2026 it answered 6.
Put the server under mcpServers in ~/.cursor/mcp.json with the URL https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry. The exact JSON is above, with the same setup for Claude Code, Claude Desktop, VS Code, Windsurf, Zed, Gemini CLI and the rest.
It listed its tools to an anonymous client, so reading the tool list needs no key. Individual tools can still ask for credentials in their own inputs.
Publisher: com.predictionmarketspicks. Endpoint host: predictionmarketspicks.com. ARD identifier: urn:air:com.predictionmarketspicks:mcp:weather.
First indexed 10 September 2026. The tools are exactly what the server returned; nothing on this page
is inferred from its name. Ranking in Neuronto search is never for sale.